February 2026: Stabilizing, Not Surging

February 2026 confirmed that Southern Ontario is in a moderately buyer-tilted but tightening resale market — with more inventory and choice than the 2021–2022 peak years, but firmer pricing than late 2023–2024. While GTA market conditions tightened versus February 2025, both the MLS HPI Composite and average selling price were still down on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to January 2026, meaning buyers retained some negotiating leverage.

In Waterloo Region, home sales jumped almost 26% from January, signalling a strong start to the spring market even as months of inventory hovered in the 2–3.5 range — a balanced-to-leaning-buyer environment. Across the Greater Toronto Area, Hamilton–Burlington, and Waterloo Region, most indicators point to stabilizing prices rather than sharp gains or further major declines, with year-over-year trends mixed by segment and city.

GTA, Hamilton–Burlington & Waterloo: City by City

TRREB's February 2026 reporting shows that GTA resale housing market conditions tightened versus February 2025, with sales up and active listings lower on a year-over-year basis. However, on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both the MLS HPI Composite and the average selling price declined compared to January 2026, reflecting ongoing affordability constraints and cautious sentiment.

City of Toronto

February 2026 resale activity reflected a "quietly tighter but still cautious" pattern: stronger than last year, softer than historical norms, and with pricing that has largely stabilized after prior corrections. Downtown and midtown condo markets continue to offer the most inventory and negotiating room, whereas low-rise freehold product in established neighbourhoods (Leaside, The Beaches, High Park, Roncesvalles, Leslieville) remains relatively resilient due to land scarcity.

• High-rise condos in downtown, CityPlace, Liberty Village, and waterfront corridors — most inventory and buyer leverage
• Mid-rise and older condo stock along Yonge–Eglinton and Danforth — lengthened DOM vs. 2021 peak
• Freehold detached in established neighbourhoods — relatively resilient, limited supply

Peel Region — Mississauga & Brampton

TRREB data shows Mississauga and Brampton followed the GTA-wide pattern of tighter conditions versus 2025, but with buyers still able to negotiate on price, conditions, and closing dates. Mississauga's condo-rich City Centre area around Square One offers relatively accessible entry points, while detached product in Lorne Park and Mineola commands premiums but is no longer automatically drawing multiple offers.

York Region — Markham, Vaughan, Aurora, Newmarket, King

York Region continues to behave as a classic move-up suburban market: detached and townhomes remain the dominant form, with active demand from families and multi-generational households. Correctly priced listings in Markham and Vaughan still move, but aspirational pricing is routinely punished with longer days on market and price reductions.

Durham Region — Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, Clarington

Durham remains one of the more affordability-driven submarkets of the GTA, drawing first-time and move-over buyers out of Toronto and York. In February 2026, buyers saw more choice and relatively softer pricing than inner-GTA locations, especially in newer subdivisions and entry-level detached/townhome product.

Halton Region — Oakville, Milton, Burlington

Oakville and south Burlington remain premium, lower-supply markets, while Milton offers comparatively attainable newer housing stock. Neighbourhood-level February 2026 stats from TRREB's Market Watch illustrate the split:

Hamilton–Burlington (Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Brantford) ⚙️

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton–Burlington (RAHB) reports that by early 2026, sales and new listings were aligning more closely with long-term trends. Hamilton prices corrected significantly from prior peaks, with average prices at one point reverting to roughly late-2020 levels before modestly recovering. February 2026 translates into a balanced market with improved affordability relative to 2021–2022, especially for townhomes and condos.

• City of Hamilton proper — average prices remain only modestly above 2021 levels and well below peak
• Condo and townhouse complexes in Hamilton Mountain and Stoney Creek — sharper corrections create sustainable valuations
• Family-oriented detached in Ancaster — steady interest without intense bidding pressure

Waterloo Region — Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge 🏙️

Cornerstone Association of Realtors data shows home sales surged by nearly 26% in February compared with January, reflecting a strong seasonal lift and renewed confidence. Detailed February 2026 stats indicate 339 homes sold region-wide, with sales down about 8.1% year-over-year, a median price around $690,000, and an average days on market of roughly 37 days. Months of inventory sat at about 2.5 overall — a balanced market leaning slightly toward buyers in slower segments.

Detached, Semis, Townhomes & Condos

Across the GTHWA, detached homes remain the benchmark segment and continue to show the most price resilience due to limited supply, land constraints, and strong end-user demand. Condos and some townhome segments carry higher months of inventory, particularly in investor-heavy areas, resulting in flatter or slightly declining prices through February 2026.

Rates, Immigration, Supply & Policy

• Interest rates: Many fixed rates dipped below 6% by late February 2026, supporting improved affordability and a rebound in pending home sales — though price growth remains moderate.
• Inventory: Active listings remain higher than ultra-tight years but still below pre-pandemic norms in many markets, preventing a deeper price correction.
• Immigration & population growth: TRREB's 2026 Market Outlook emphasizes that ongoing population growth will keep baseline housing demand elevated, even through economic cycles.
• Policy & "missing middle": TRREB and regional boards continue to stress the need for zoning reform — enabling more townhomes, multiplexes, and mid-density infill — to bridge the gap between condos and detached homes.

How Buyers & Sellers Feel Right Now

By February 2026, buyer and seller psychology across the GTA, Hamilton, and Waterloo Region has evolved from fear-of-missing-out to data-driven caution and value-seeking. Buyers who are confident in their employment and financing increasingly recognize that conditions favour thorough due diligence — home inspections, financing conditions, and measured offers — rather than aggressive bidding wars.

Confidence is cautious but improving: lower rates, stable prices, and more choice are luring some sidelined buyers back, while sellers are increasingly realistic about today's more analytical, slower-paced market.

Spring–Fall 2026 & Beyond

TRREB's 2026 Market Outlook anticipates that GTA home sales and prices will remain relatively stable this year, with modest upside risk if rates drift lower and confidence improves. National housing data also points to rising inventory and slower price growth, suggesting that most Canadian markets — including Southern Ontario — will operate as balanced markets with regional variation rather than clear-cut buyer or seller markets.

• Continued price stability, with detached and well-located freehold product leading any gradual appreciation
• Ongoing opportunity for buyers in condo and townhome segments, especially where investor selling and higher inventory persist
• Macro factors (employment trends, rate moves, immigration policy) will matter as much as purely local dynamics